对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估     

陈学忠  陈佩燕  王林瑛 《国际地震动态》2004,(12):8-15

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。  相似文献   

利用高分辨率卫星影像进行地震损失评价所需的城市特征识别   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

袁中夏  王兰民 《世界地震工程》2004,20(3):135-140

高分辨率卫星影像已经在一些国家的民用领域得到应用。利用高分辨率卫星影像来收集地震损失评价所需要的各类城市信息不仅高效和有较好的时间分辨率，而且它可以减少以往所必需的大量的代价高昂且费力的城市调查。基于在印度城市台拉登所做的研究，讨论了如何利用高分辨率卫星影像进行城市特征识别的一些问题，同时也简单论述了利用GIS／RS软件综合所得的数据以便用于地震损失评价的方法。  相似文献   

Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance     

TANG Ai-ping~  WEN Ai-hua~ 《地球科学进展》2004,(Z1)

As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been done for many years, include these contents: insurance model, financing. This paper presents the development of china in EDM and EI. The main contents include: (1) the statue and trend of earthquake disaster management and insurance in china; (2) the progresses and new methods about the seismic risk zonation and vulnerability analysis, and the future developing trend, the application of GIS in earthquake disaster assessment is introduced; (3) the way and illustration in building the earthquake disaster e  相似文献   

21世纪中国地质灾害防治形势与减灾战略思考   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

张樑 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(2):16-21

文章论述了21世纪中国地质灾害减灾面临的形势是既存在许多有利条件又存在多方面困难而面临严重挑战。提出21世纪地质灾害减灾战略：1．建立地质灾害防治安全维护体系；2．优先安排西部地区地质灾害防治工程，实施地质灾害风险管理；3．建立矿山地质灾害防治监督管理体系；4．城市地质灾害防治与土地利用相结合；5．加强我国地质环境监测与网站建设；6．针对地质灾害区域分布规律，采取分区减灾对策；7．加大地质灾害防治投入力度。  相似文献   

建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

金德山 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):101-103

结合工作实践，就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则，评估区环境条件分析深度的把握，现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点，土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准，提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。  相似文献   

横穿贝加尔湖山脉北部寒区的线性工程     

I.Y. Malchikova 《冰川冻土》2004,26(Z1):206-209

The development of North Transbaikalye mineral resources (e. g. the Chiney deposit of iron titanium-vanadium-magnetite ores and Udokan copper deposits) is impossible without the establishment of industrial and transport infrastructure, one component of which are linear engineering constructions (drive railways, by-line auto roads, platform passages, protecting constructions, and others). However,on condition of spreading permafrost rocks this is conjugated with certain ecological risk just as from the transport network objects so for the objects themselves. A special attention is paid in the paper to considering of problems of projecting and constructing railways on the Udokan ridge.  相似文献   

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China     

刘惠敏  苏桂武  邓砚  高庆华 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(4):490-499

Introduction Since 1920s, with increasing awareness of disaster prevention and reduction in various as-pects and gradually deepened development of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) activities in China, the role and position of disaster risk analysis and risk management work are increasingly prominent. In the final report of the IDNDR activities in 1999, the Science and Technology Committee of IDNDR had presented 5 challenge fields, which the international dis…  相似文献   

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dale Dominey-Howes  Despina Minos-Minopoulos   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2004,137(4):4

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.  相似文献   

洪水保险债券的运作机制与发展思路          下载免费PDF全文

魏敏杰  纪昌明 《水科学进展》2004,15(1):113-116

由于传统(再)保险,难以将洪灾风险进行有效的分散,因此,有必要寻求有效的金融工具将洪灾风险向资本市场转移。在建立洪水保险债券的概念框架基础上,阐述了与普通债券及传统再保险的区别。从经济学和精算学的角度对洪水保险债券进行分析,揭示了洪水保险债券定价机制。通过研究洪水保险债券的运作模式,分析了我国洪水保险债券的发行条件与发展思路,指出洪水保险债券为我国防洪减灾提供了可资借鉴的崭新方法与工具。  相似文献   

洪水保险的理论分析与研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

王本德  于义彬 《水科学进展》2004,15(1):117-122

简述了目前一些国家的洪水保险的现状,综合应用了经济学、保险学、系统工程等理论和知识,对洪水保险问题进行了深入分析和研究,揭示了洪水保险的内在性质和规律,建立了洪水保险的效用模型。结合我国的国情,对我国实施洪水保险提出了建议。  相似文献